NGX Market Recap – Friday, August 1, 2025

The NGX All Share Index (ASI) staged a strong rebound today, closing up +1.00% at 139,863.52. Year-to-date, the ASI remains robust, delivering an impressive +36.91%. Volume surged as 256.03 million shares changed hands, a significant jump versus the prior day. Market turnover soared by +60.22% to 5.35B Naira, signifying renewed interest—particularly from institutional investors, who accounted for an outsized share of trade value. Despite this buoyancy, market breadth was narrowly negative at 0.95x, with decliners (40) just surpassing advancers (38).

ETF volatility defined the leaderboard: GREENWETF led gainers, while MERGROWTH (ironically, also among top five YTD performers) was the largest daily loser. Large caps like UACN and BUA CEMENT posted high-single digit gains, while financials like FCMB stood out for unusually high volumes.

Key Market Trends & Insights

• Market Breadth: Slight negative skew (Advancers: 38; Decliners: 40). Despite the index gain, more stocks fell than rose—suggesting breadth is not backing headline bullishness.
• Turnover: +60.22% boost in traded value (to 5.35B NGN) signals strong institutional participation. Volume traded jumped to 256.03M shares (~2.7x yesterday's).
• Sector Flows: Large portions of value traded, especially in Banking (e.g., FCMB, UBA, GTCO, ZENITHBANK), underscored by outsized volumes and trade value clustering.
• Top Gainers:
  • GREENWETF +10.00% (Closed: 291.50) – ETF bounce with RSI moderately strong (52.29).
  • UACN +9.96% (Closed: 88.30) – Explosive run with extreme RSI (99.55) and sustained MACD bullishness—also the best YTD gainer (+167.98% YTD).
  • BUACEMENT +9.63% (Closed: 148.00) – Bullish MACD and RSI (89.33) confirm strong buying.
  • VERITASKAP +9.45% (Closed: 1.39) – Notable for unusual volume (277% of avg), bullish price cross above 15DMA (1.20).
• Top Losers:
  • MERGROWTH -10.00% (Closed: 665.50) – YTD top gainer, but pressure mounting (RSI: 75.65 → 97.00 prev. day, possible overbought correction).
  • DANGSUGAR -10.00% (Closed: 66.15) – Sharp drop with high RSI (87.04)—possible exhaustion selloff.
  • OANDO -10.00% (Closed: 53.10) – Bearish cross below 15DMA signals. YTD: -19.30%.
  • ABBEYBDS -9.76% (Closed: 5.27) – YTD deep loser (-75.67%), low RSI (29.95) implies possible oversold/reversal risk for shorters.
• Unusual Volume:
  • FCMB – +553% above 90d average, up on the day; points to significant accumulation.
  • VERITASKAP – Volume up +276% and strong price move (+9.45%).
  • STERLINGNG – Volume spike +501%, yet fell -7.14% (watch for forced sellers or blow-off).

Momentum & Technical Insights

• Bullish Momentum (Price Cross Above 15DMA): LEGENDINT, PRESTIGE, REGALINS, FIRSTHOLDCO, FIDELITYBK.
  • FIRSTHOLDCO and FIDELITYBK show Banking sector's resilience; keep an eye for follow-through.
  • REGALINS demonstrates insurance sector cross-sector flows.
• Bearish Momentum (Price Cross Below 15DMA): (Key stocks) NGXINS, AFRIPRUD, VETBANK, CAVERTON, MCNICHOLS, TRANSCORP, NGXGROUP, UNIVINSURE, LEARNAFRCA, INTENEGINS, CORNERST, CHAMPION, OANDO.
  • AFRIPRUD: High dividend yielder 1.27% but bearish cross below 15DMA—caution warranted.
  • CORNERST & OANDO also feature among top YTD losers—momentum remains negative.
  • CHAMPION & DANGSUGAR at high RSI but sharp daily selloff—possible exhaustion rather than structural trend change.
• RSI Extremes:
  • UACN (99.55), MERGROWTH (75.65), BUACEMENT (89.33): all deeply overbought, caution for late buyers.
  • ABBEYBDS (29.95): Approaching oversold; risk/reward improves for contrarians.

Contrarian Signals

• CHAMPION: Despite a neutral RSI (62.7) and bullish MACD, YTD is -9.8% but saw a -10% daily drawdown—potential turn if support holds and momentum picks up.
• AFRIPRUD: High yield (1.27%), beta 0.64 (defensive), but stock is breaking down on momentum. Contrarian yield seekers may watch for a reversal sign.
• VERITASKAP: Smallcap insurer, large volume surge + price spike, but RSI not in danger zone—room for more upside if speculative flow continues.
• STERLINGNG: High volume but large price drop; may indicate capitulation or a forced exit. Short-term bounce plausible if buyers absorb supply.

Sector Heatmap & Technical Overview

Dividend Yield – Beta Matrix (Defensive Opportunities)

Insight: High dividend stocks like AFRIPRUD and FIDELITYBK show opposite momentum signals. Watch for reversals or stabilization among defensive plays.

Institutional Clustering Alert

• ZENITHBANK: 20.17% of institutional trade value—the single largest clustering. It closed flat on the day with moderate momentum and volume. Suggests continued institutional buy-side focus.
• FCMB: Significant volume (259M shares; +553% UV) and value from institutional accounts. Price rose strongly as well—potential accumulation phase.
• WAPCO, GTCO, UBA: High institutional volumes, though moves were muted or negative. Look for any divergence in institutional vs. retail behavior for these.

YTD Top 5 Gainers

YTD Top 5 Losers

Trading Activity: Institutional vs Retail

• Institutional Investors:
  • Account for 41.45% of all trades, but dominate in volume (+72.07%) and trade value (+89.01%).
  • Core trades: ZENITHBANK, WAPCO, GTCO, FCMB, UBA.
  • FCMB stands out—the top by volume (259M shares) and value (2.65B NGN; +553% UV). Likely institution-driven accumulation.
  • Financials dominate institutional focus, with large trade clustering in leading banks.
• Retail Investors:
  • 58.55% of all trades, but only 27.93% of volume and 10.99% of value—suggesting they're trading more in small-cap, less liquid names.
  • Top symbols: UBA, MTNN, ACCESSCORP, GTCO, DANGSUGAR. Retail flows skew to liquid, well-known stocks.
  • Noteworthy: Retail sold into DANGSUGAR weakness and participated in MTNN’s strength.
• Insights for traders:
  • Institutional buying on high-volume spikes (e.g., FCMB) can precede price momentum and may signal accumulation— watch for follow-through in sessions ahead.
  • Retail crowd moving into liquid stocks (UBA, MTNN) but little sign of "froth" yet in high-risk names.
  • Spread between institutional vs. retail volumes largest in banks — sector rotation in play.

Trader Suggestions & Watchlist

• Bullish watch:
  • FCMB, UACN, FIDELITYBK – momentum, high volume, or price crossing above key averages.
  • VERITASKAP – volume-driven speculation, potential breakout play.
• Bearish/risk-caution:
  • ABBEYBDS, OANDO, CORNERST – breaking down with little technical support, avoid bottom-fishing without reversal confirmation.
  • DANGSUGAR, CHAMPION– Overbought on RSI, but large one-day sell-off; avoid chasing but monitor for reversal setups.
• Dividend/Defensive:
  • Monitor AFRIPRUD or FIDELITYBK for yield-driven rebounds—be patient on confirmation of trend reversal.
• General Caution: Breadth not confirming the index move. Chasing overbought leaders like UACN, MERGROWTH, or BUACEMENT is risky—expect mean-reversion soon.

Currency Market: The Naira depreciated by -0.06% to 1,530 per Dollar—cautious market risk mood persists.

Hidden Insights & Patterns Worth Tracking

• Several top YTD gainers (UACN, MERGROWTH) are now extremely overbought by RSI but still supported by positive MACD—watch for a momentum unwind if volume stalls.
• Institutions are heavily clustered in banking stocks, especially FCMB (both value and volume). Such moves often precede a sector breakout or trend continuation—short-term traders should monitor for follow-through.
• High Dividend, Low Beta, and Bearish Cross Candidates: AFRIPRUD displays all—raising the odds of a tactical, low-risk entry for dividend investors IF price stabilizes post-selloff.
• Stocks with both bearish price momentum and unusual volume (e.g., STERLINGNG, ROYALEX) may indicate forced selling or portfolio rotation—watch for reversal signals in upcoming sessions.